House prices and the logical conclusion of the Davy Stockbrokers report

Even those with the most tenuous understanding of economics should understand what the Davy report on the housing shortage means, especially in relation to house prices.

Davy Stockbrokers report estimates that the State will need 93,000 new houses per year to keep up with demand.

But in 2024 only 30,000 homes were builit. And the programme for government published by the new government proposes a target of 50,000 homes per year for the next 6 years.

There is a problem, too, in making accurate forecasts as to the likely demand. The reason for this is the factors that determine demand are dynamic and change from month to month.

If it is tremendously difficult to forecast demand it follows that it will be equally difficult to provide a solution.

Meanwhile, house prices can go only one way, if the basic laws of economics hold sway.

And they usually do.